May 25, 2024

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Currency Market: FX weekly round up

From January 3rd and long term forecasts, the last 4 weeks trade ranges are viewed in relation to significant MA”s.

AUDUSD January 8 to February 5

AUD/USD: 0.7498 Vs 0.7821 or 323 pips

January 8: 0.7530 Vs 0.7821 or 291 pips and a 32 pip compression to overall ranges.

January 14: This week: 0.7535 Vs 0.7821 or 286 pips and a 5 pip compression from last week and 37 pips overall in 3 weeks.

Last week: 0.7531 Vs 0.7821 or 290 pips, a range  expansion of 4 pips.

Between 0.7531 and 0.7821 are minor levels to trade weeklies.

January 9th, AUD/USD opened the week at 0.7765 then opened January 16th at 0.7700 or a 65 pip week.

January 16 to 23, AUD/USD opened at 0.7700 to close at 0.7710 for a 10 pip difference.

January 23rd to January 30 AUD opened at 0.7710 Vs close 0.7637 or 73 pips.

January 30 to Feb 5 Aud opened at 0.7637 and closed 0.7675 or 38 pips.

EUR/USD Ranges

EUR/USD January 14 Significant MA’s as follows: 1.2119, 1.2020, 1.2038 Vs 1.2630.

From 1.2119 to 1.2630 = 511 pips.

January 8 to 14 : 1.2116, 1.2020, 1.2030 vs 1.2628. From 1.2116 to 1.2628 = 512 pips.

EUR/USD moved 1 pip in 8 trade days.

January 14 to 21 : 1.2113, 1.2020, 1.2034 Vs 1.2627 = 514 pips

EUR/USD gained 3 pips to its overall range in 3 weeks.

This week: 1.2020, 1.2016, 1.2110, 1.2626 or 610 pips and a range expansion of 96 pips.

EUR/USD Weekly Closes

Weekly January 9 to 16, EUR/USD opened at 1.2216 and closed 1.2074 or 142 pips.

January 16 to 23rd: 1.2074 to 1.2169 or 95 pips

January 23 to 30th: 1.2169 to 1.2132 or 37 pips.

January30 to Feb 5: 1.2132 to 1.2048 or 84 pips.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD January 14 Significant MA’s as follows: 1.2586 Vs 1.2924 and 1.2976. From 1.2586 to 1.2976 = 390 Pips.

January 14 to 23rd: 1.2586, 1.2886 and 1.2976 or 390 pips and no change over 8 trade days.

January 23 to 30 : 1.2586, 1.2886 and 1.2976 or 390 pips and no change.

January 30 to Feb 5: 1.2586, 1.2889 and 1.2976 or 390 pips and no change for January.

USD/CAD Closes

January 9 to 16: 1.2684 to 1.2736 or 52 pips.

January 16 to 23rd: 1.2736 to 1.2729 or 6 pips.

January 23rd to 30th: 1.2729 to 1.2773 or 44 pips.

January 30 to Feb 5: 1.2773 to 1.2756 or 17 pips.

GBP/USD Ranges

GBP/USD January 14 Significant MA’s as follows: 1.3351 and 1.3360 Vs 1.3832 or 481 pips from 1.3832 to 1.3551.

January 8 to 16: 1.3408 and 1.3360 to 1.3832. From 1.3832 to 1.3408 = 424 pips and a compression of 57 pips to overall ranges.

January 23 to 31: This week: 1.3448, 1.3360 Vs 1.3832 or 384 pips, a compression of 40 pips from last week and 97 pip in 3 weeks from 481.

This week: 1.3360, 1.3477, 1.3832 or 355 pips and a 126 pip range compression.

GBP/USD Closes

January 9 to 16th: 1.3554 to 1.3575 or 21 pips

January 16 to 23rd: 1.3575 to 1.3671 or 96 pips.

January 23rd to 30th: 1.3671 to 1.3688 or 17 pips.

January 30 to Feb 5: 1.3688 to 1.3727 or 39 pips.

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY. January 14 Significant MA’s as follows: 139.25 Vs 144.31 and 146.14 or 689 pips from 146.14 to 139.25.

January 23 to 30: 139.76, Vs 144.31 and 146.14 or 689 pips from 139.15 to 146.14 or 638 pips from 146.14 to 139.76.

Bottom average rose by 51 pips to compress ranges by exactly 51 pips.

January 30 to Feb 5: 140.25, 142.66, 144.31 Vs 146.14 or 589 pips and an overall range compression of 100 pips.

This week: 141.00, 142.54 and 148.25 or 571 pips vs 154 pips from 142.54 to 141.00.

GBP/JPY Closes

January 9 to 16: 140.92 to 141.03 or 11 pips.

January 16 to 23rd: 141.03 to 141.95 or 92 pips.

January 23 to 30th: 141.95 to 143.39 or 144 pips.

January 30 to Feb 5: 143.39 to 144.63 or 124 pips.

The week

Currency pair price ranges are in deep contraction this week and the lowest ranges for all January.

GBP

Same 2 week story to GBP as all GBP pairs are significantly overbought and trade above Vital MA’s except GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD. Watch GBP/AUD 1.7900 and GBP/NZD 1.9119.

GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD contained deep divergence to prices last week however this week both pairs are in sync.

GBP/USD and GBP/JPY are best to trade especially as GBP/USD approaches vital 1.3832. Lower to high 1.3500’s is a good target.

GBP/CHF and GBP/CAD remain significant range problem pairs to GBP. Both are middle currencies in the GBP universe.

JPY

All JPY cross pairs in week 2 are deeply overbought. Watch AUD/JPY 5 year average 79.70 and NZD/JPY 75.41.

USD/JPY trades above its high/low point at 104.63 while EUR/USD trades above 1.2016. This situation cannot hold as either EUR/USD breaks lower or USD/JPY must trade lower.

AUD

AUD/JPY and AUD/CHF are deeply overbought as both are middle currencies in the AUD universe. AUD/USD and AUD/CAD as 2 outer currencies retain slight overbought positions this week. AUD/JPY must break 79.70 and AUD/CAD 0.9702 for AUD/USD to move significantly lower.

NZD

NZD/JPY and NZD/CHF are deeply overbought this week as both are middle currencies to NZD. For NZD/USD retain slight overbought this week and NZD/CAD sits at perfect neutral. NZDCAD must break 0.9085 and NZD/JPY its 5 year average at 75.41 in order for NZD/USD to trade significantly lower.

EUR

EUR/USD requires a break of 1.2020 and 1.2016 to trade significantly lower to 1.1800’s. A break at 1.2020 and 1.2016 is a complete trend reversal to take EUR/USD far lower than 1.1800;s.

EUR/USD this week is oversold however EUR sits 28 and 32 pips from vital 1.2020 and 1.2016.

EUR/JPY and EUR/CHF retain richter scale overbought status this week. EUR/USD lower requires EUR/JPY assistance with first break at 125.70 then significant hurdles at 124.30, 124.17 and 124.02.

EUR/CAD, EUR/NZD and EUR/AUD at EUR upper end are all oversold this week. EUR/CAD in particular is at richter scale oversold. EUR from the short end as EUR/JPY and EUR/CHF are in contention with EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD. EUR/USD, EUR/JPY and EUR/USD trade above vital points while EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD trade below.

A correction higher to EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD could easily align all EUR pairs then EUR/USD will be able to break 1.2020 and 1.2016 to trade significantly lower.

USD/CAD Vs CAD/JPY

USD/CAD higher looks good this week and CAD/JPY lower. CAD/JPY is the problem pair to USD/CAD as it never retains a proper weekly range in comparison to USD/CAD.